Angelica Solutions, an insurance analytics and advisory business, has warned that a growing share of serious road casualties among pedestrians and cyclists could open up a fresh area of cost pressure for motor insurers.
New modelling from the firm suggests that if walking and cycling activity rose by 60% while current injury rates held steady, the number of pedestrians and cyclists killed or seriously injured could climb by around 22%. That, in turn, could push third-party injury costs up by roughly 18% and lift overall motor claims costs by close to 6%.
The findings are based on an examination of police STATS19 collision statistics, which show that casualties among drivers and passengers have dropped by 46% since 2010, compared with just a 16% fall for vulnerable road users over the same period.
Vulnerable road users now make up around four in every ten casualties on England’s roads and account for 57% of all people killed or seriously injured, a pattern the firm says reflects how safety gains have benefited vehicle occupants far more than those outside them.
The report links its findings to the Government’s £4.5 billion Investment Strategy, which aims to boost levels of walking, wheeling and cycling, noting that this ambition could accelerate the shifting casualty mix unless protections for vulnerable road users improve.
Angelica Solutions Director Sarah Vaughan said, “Over the past decade the motor market has successfully adapted to major legal reforms including the Whiplash Reform Programme, changes to the Small Claims Track and revisions to the Ogden Discount Rate. Those changes have fundamentally reshaped motor injury claims, the former particularly affecting lower value claims”.
Vaughan added, “The casualty mix is changing as pedestrians, cyclists and motorcyclists are disproportionately represented in the most serious injury claims, meaning a growing share of insurers’ overall claims spend is likely to be concentrated in complex, high-value losses.”
“As Government policies encourage more active travel, insurers have an opportunity to look beyond simply pricing this changing risk and instead help shape how it is managed.
“Better collision data, richer claims analytics and more targeted road safety interventions can help reduce serious injuries before they become catastrophic claims. Protecting vulnerable road users is not only a public policy objective, but it also helps preserve many of the hard-won improvements the insurance market has achieved over the past decade.”
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